This morning carbon futures are trading around €13 ($18.75), not even reaching half of what ABI says is needed for a commercial CCS. So, if the carbon markets hover around this price, CCS won’t be moving into commercialization anytime soon, as many have predicted.
The ABI report is interesting in that it predicts that CCS and the carbon emissions trading markets will be closely linked going forward as carbon credits will be created as carbon from CCS is stored. Pike Research has predicted the same thing. And that really means that CCS won’t be economical for power producers without that externality — also not a good sign for CCS.
Pike Research has pointed out that CCS will hike up the cost of producing electricity at power plants by 50-70 percent (based on today’s costs and capabilities). Energy Secretary Steven Chu has said that CCS technology today would increase the cost of generating power from coal by about 80 percent and that it would need to get to a 20-25 percent premium to be “tolerable.”
That’s why many are pretty bearish on CCS. Google CEO Eric Schmidt has likened the current state of CCS technology to a half-baked web tool in need of debugging.
Still with the U.S. government making a significant investment in the tech through the stimulus package, the technology will have to move forward, at least a little bit. The Obama administration’s Recovery Act included $3.4 billion for CCS-related projects, and the EU plans to spend $535 million on CCS and clean coal technology through 2013. Australia, Canada and Norway have said each will invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the industry in the coming years. The ABI report says that between 2009 and 2014, $14.6 billion will be invested in 73 new CCS projects that will sequester 146 million tons of CO2.
A report by Emerging Energy Research published in February found that CCS technology could be ready for commercialization as early as 2016 if demonstration projects go well and governments provide sufficient funding.